When Apple released the iPhone, it disrupted the MP3 industry, in which its iPod made it a leading competitor. While the phone created competition for Apple’s own product, it also opened avenues to other industries when it began to replace navigation systems, digital cameras and other previously discrete technology.
This is just one example of how digital giants will be looking to self-disrupt, and perhaps move away from disrupting untouched industries. And it signals the rapid pace of technology innovation we see in the 2018 Gartner Top Strategic Predictions list. The challenge for organizations and IT leaders will be to keep up.
When innovation A has been implemented, enterprises will find that during the time they spent on it, innovations B, C and D arrived. CIOs and strategists have a challenge in determining which technologies to use, and also in finding a way to handle the onslaught.
These predictions provide insight into the future, but it is up to individual enterprises to determine an appropriate adoption pace.
- Visual and Voice Search
By 2021, early adopter brands that redesign their websites to support visual and voice search will increase digital commerce revenue by 30%.
As consumers shift to favor visual and voice search, enterprises should prepare to shift as well. Marketers will be able to gather more consumer data from these increasingly dominant search options, leading to better customer experience and expanded customer base.
- Digital Giants Look Inward
By 2020, 5 of top 7 digital giants will willfully self-disrupt to create their next leadership opportunity.
Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google are known for disrupting industries. But a lack of external opportunities will lead these companies to look to areas where they already compete. They will look to potentially disrupt even their own revenue base for future opportunities and growth.
- Banks Legitimize Cryptocurrencies
By 2020, the banking Industry will derive $1B of business value from the use of blockchain-based cryptocurrencies.
Although the $1B of business value represents only a fraction of the gross output of the world’s banking industry, the tacit approval that comes with it is the real opportunity. With more than 900 cryptocurrencies currently available, a nod of approval from the banking industries could signal growth in other sectors.
- False Information Overtakes True
By 2022, the majority of individuals in mature economies will consume more false information than true information.
In the coming years, brands and their reputations will be vulnerable to the fake news trend currently seen mostly in politics. Companies should look to safeguard their reputations but monitor what is being said and present a recognizable and unique pattern of behavior.
- AI Propels Counterfeit Reality Forward
By 2020, AI-driven creation of "counterfeit reality" video, audio, documents and business content will outpace AI’s ability to detect it.
While current AI can recognize images as well as humans (and more quickly), future AI will also be able to detect doctored media. Unfortunately, AI can create counterfeit reality or manipulated media faster than it can detect it.
- Make Room for Bots
By 2021, more than 50% of enterprises will spend more per annum on bots and chatbot creation than traditional mobile app development.
In the next few years, chatbots will become the face of AI and bots will transform how apps are built. Though the “post-app era” will not mean the end of traditional apps, they will become just one of many options available to consumers.
- Focus Skill Sets on Versatility
By 2021, 40% of IT staff will be “versatilists” holding multiple roles, most of which will be business- rather than technology-related.
The evolution of digital business means the prominent skill sets will shift from specialized IT roles to more versatile, business-related roles. The evolution will begin in the I&O realm and eventual work its way to architecture.
- AI Provides New Jobs
In 2020, AI will become a positive net job motivator, creating 2.3M jobs while only eliminating 1.8M jobs.
AI will provide time and effort savings in all industries, with AI-related jobs seeing steady growth starting in 2020.More than replacing humans entirely, AI will augment existing jobs and improve productivity. A wide range of companies have started AI initiatives, and most industries will see little to no job loss as a result.
- Add IoT to All Products
By 2020, IoT technology will be in 95% of electronics for new product designs.
Suppliers will begin adding IoT capabilities to products without really knowing how they will be used. This is a result of the increased availability of inexpensive IoT options and will lead to having this technology in every electronics-enabled product.
- IoT Presents Security Challenges
Through 2022, half of all security budgets for IoT will go to fault remediation, recalls and safety failures rather than protection.
Designers are unsure of what security issues will arise with IoT products, despite an effort to include the option in all electronics. This will mean a wide push of these products that will need to be recalled for security issues, as they will not be able to be patched via networks.
Daryl C. Plummer is a managing vice president, chief of Research and chief Gartner fellow at Gartner, Inc. He is chief of research for cloud computing and a primary analyst covering multiple cloud topics, business process management, SOA and Web technologies.
